Why Is It So Hard to Be Rational?
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Highlights
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There are many ways to explain Bayesian reasoningādoctors learn it one way and statisticians anotherābut the basic idea is simple. When new information comes in, you donāt want it to replace old information wholesale. Instead, you want it to modify what you already know to an appropriate degree. The degree of modification depends both on your confidence in your preĆ«xisting knowledge and on the value of the new data. Bayesian reasoners begin with what they call the āpriorā probability of something being true, and then find out if they need to adjust it.
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Iāve long admired my friend Greg for his rationality, but Iāve since updated my views. I think itās not rationality, as such, that makes him curious, truthful, honest, careful, perceptive, and fair, but the reverse.
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The realities of rationality are humbling. Know things; want things; use what you know to get what you want. It sounds like a simple formula. But, in truth, it maps out a series of escalating challenges. In search of facts, we must make do with probabilities. Unable to know it all for ourselves, we must rely on others who care enough to know. We must act while we are still uncertain, and we must act in timeāsometimes individually, but often together. For all this to happen, rationality is necessary, but not sufficient. Thinking straight is just part of the work.